I'm currently reading Factfulness by Hans Rosling, where these numbers (and the underlying population changes) are used everywhere. It's a fascinating book.
This is all very depressing but I am cheered up a bit by the visualisation (with a bit of #Voronoi , which I always like). And then I am straight back to being depressed. The people bomb, it's so bad.
It would be nice to view global resources consuming plan. I have read that US consumes about 40% resources.
If China and India will make their level of life comparable we can enter great resource crisis of the Earth scale
More important issue is the global plan for human populatioon to survive for the next 100-200 years minimum. We are not ready to return to Middle Ages tech
This is not sustainable. In the 1950's, when the global population was 2.5 billion, the UN stated we were reaching dangerous over-population, & needed a global initiative to limit population growth, & keep it level. Religious objections & political & corporate greed squelched ZPG, & now the entire planet is at risk. Humans are so stupid & short-sighted.
@Sheril: Africa, the Green Continent, should be green, though. Oceania should be blue, the traditional symbolic colour of oceans. South America should be yellow, the colour of fire, after Tierra del Fuego, North America white, the colour of Canadian wilderness, and Europe brown, the colour of fields plowed when most of the forests were taken down.
So not even 20% of the global population dictates their world destructive practices to the reset of the world. I would imagine thém to put a fence around ús
I’m seeing some folks concerned about “overpopulation.”
As I outlined in this talk from a decade ago, we shouldn’t focus on the total number of people on Earth, but rather how they consume, distribute & waste resources (energy, water, food, etc).
The population projections included here were based on Hans Rosling’s work & have shifted a bit since this was recorded, but the arguments still hold. /2
Does parenthood make us better stewards of our planet? Is there hope for an overpopulated Earth? In her informative and inspiring TEDxMonterey talk, Sheril...
Just watched the video - I see your point that this is a nuanced issue. Here I've always taken as axiomatic that increasing population is bad and decreasing it is good. I have much to think about - thanks.
still I think the exponential growth is not healthy. Look at the graph’s… it’s not healthy. I know the arguments but we can’t bet on having more people to support more people. Seeing a solution in consume, distribute and waste resources is an utopian view. We live in a capitalist society. Look at our climate goals, we handled that pretty well didn’t we? We need less people and hope for technology to fill in the blanks. Having less people will result in less resources and less waste.
I think we need to reevaluate, given fast, cheap access to low earth orbit, asteroids and other planets. We have additional elbow room and an unending set of resources. I’m not saying we shouldn’t manage things, but we can’t just keep looking at the same old views.
I believe it is a combination of both. Would prefer to see focus on rational population stabilization and resource usage. Of course the chance of that happening are about nil.
I was expecting you to pivot from The Population Bomb to Borlaug, and so the turn to women and family planning confused me for a moment...in precisely the same way that Malthus and Erlich also failed to see your point.
I'd always assumed Malthus-et-al's primary failure was not anticipating technological advance, not the much more fundamental failure to understand basic human nature.
agreed. What really influenced my perspective was James McKinnon the day the world stops shopping https://www.abebooks.com/book-search/title/the-day-the-world-stops-shopping/. In his analysis, the world population as is can sustain itself on the lifestyle of an Ecuadorean. One car, local vacation, yes washing machine, no dish washer. I loved just the realness of accepting that Americans have to be okay with the lives of their grandparents in the late 1940’s
The Day the World Stops Shopping: How to have a better life and greener world by MacKinnon, J. B. and a great selection of related books, art and collectibles available now at AbeBooks.com.
Incidentally, when I’ve mentioned this on Twitter, I get waves of antisemitic trolls (bc of my last name) calling me a “globalist” & sending Holocaust imagery. /3
Excellent points all around, although I'm incredibly sorry to hear about the hate speech you've encountered in sharing it.
I'm curious if, in your work, you've come across reliable data on the impact of pollution and endocrine disruptors on fertility rates? There's an awful lot of junk science out there related to the topic, but from a layperson's perspective it seems closely tied to fertility, population and sustainability (i.e. safety of air/water/land).
@haley_exe This is an important question. There's the worldwide decrease in sperm counts - if we're causing that with chemicals, hello "Children of Men". There's also the increase in people being openly trans (causing the right wing a panic attack) It certainly could be that the increase is entirely visibility due to greater acceptance. But it's also possible that higher concentrations of endocrine disruptors are creating more trans people in utero than in the past.
— I hope you do not have to deal with such trolls here on Twitter!
I personally feel that non-human species, and humanity too, would be far healthier and happier if the human population were under half a billion. And I see no real need for the number to be greater than that. But that is my modest personal opinion, and I don’t expect many people to agree with me.
I do not see the 6 points you listed as either negative or a problem, they are all good but I think the fertility crisis is more about contamination of our environment and micro plastics, softeners and other chemicals being the real problem with fertility. We humans polluted our environment so much we do not even know what causes it. Oh yeah and rampant antisemitism is one of the main reasons I moved here from FB.
Energy companies are polluting the environment and no one should be surprised that it’s affecting humans and animals alike! They are killing all of us!
Ugh - any mention over there that a falling fertility rate may not be a bad thing brings out the "Great Replacement Theory" types. And of course, according to them, Jews are ultimately responsible for all the ills of the world.
We recently got new data showing that China’s population shrunk last year. It is now projected to see its population continue to decline through the rest of this century. This is being portrayed as a disaster for China.
Good reasons for lower fertility rates: Women having economic stability and independence.
Bad reasons for lower rates: Those things being so darned hard to achieve that people who want kids need to delay for years as pregnancy becomes riskier and more difficult.
Most of the women I know had their first child in their mid-30s. I'm 34 and only now ready to try. Nominally we "chose" to wait, but practically it just takes that long to establish a career, pay off loans, and obtain a home.
“If there were fewer of us, we would have less impact. We must consume less, and more importantly, we must breed fewer consuming humans.” - Tracy Stone-Manning, Director, U.S. Bureau of Land Management
Zorro
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in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •🌼 Dagnabbit, Pascaline! 🌼
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •Mikhail Yasnev
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •If China and India will make their level of life comparable we can enter great resource crisis of the Earth scale
More important issue is the global plan for human populatioon to survive for the next 100-200 years minimum. We are not ready to return to Middle Ages tech
Sudhir
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •Diamond Joy
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •jackLondon
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in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •“Here's where they live.”
At this point, I thought we were heading for planetary-scale doxxing 😀
Fran
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in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •Countries Ordered by Population in 2023
PopulationPyramid.netJSW
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in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •Lola
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in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •1/20th (5%) lives in North America.
Rem O’Donnelley
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •We Want EVERYTHING! 🌹
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •Swiper
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •Sheril Kirshenbaum
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •As I outlined in this talk from a decade ago, we shouldn’t focus on the total number of people on Earth, but rather how they consume, distribute & waste resources (energy, water, food, etc).
The population projections included here were based on Hans Rosling’s work & have shifted a bit since this was recorded, but the arguments still hold. /2
https://youtu.be/JtyAQ2JK6E8
Rethinking population | Sheril Kirshenbaum | TEDxMonterey
YouTubeGeotechland
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in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •I'd always assumed Malthus-et-al's primary failure was not anticipating technological advance, not the much more fundamental failure to understand basic human nature.
Thank you.
Elishevacarl
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •The Day the World Stops Shopping - AbeBooks
www.abebooks.comSheril Kirshenbaum
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •Yes, it poses challenges & economic uncertainty BUT it also indicates that more women have access to:
- healthcare
- family planning
- education
- employment
- autonomy
Incidentally, when I’ve mentioned this on Twitter, I get waves of antisemitic trolls (bc of my last name) calling me a “globalist” & sending Holocaust imagery. /3
haley
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •I'm curious if, in your work, you've come across reliable data on the impact of pollution and endocrine disruptors on fertility rates? There's an awful lot of junk science out there related to the topic, but from a layperson's perspective it seems closely tied to fertility, population and sustainability (i.e. safety of air/water/land).
Greg Wellman
in reply to haley • • •Sheril Kirshenbaum
in reply to Greg Wellman • • •mkb
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •Montana Magpie
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •I personally feel that non-human species, and humanity too, would be far healthier and happier if the human population were under half a billion. And I see no real need for the number to be greater than that. But that is my modest personal opinion, and I don’t expect many people to agree with me.
Hahahagida
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in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/1624696977437908993
But really the article is at The Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/11/why-a-shortage-of-mr-rights-means-single-mothers-hold-the-key-to-the-falling-birthrate
Why a shortage of Mr Rights means single mothers hold the key to the falling birthrate
Martha Gill (The Guardian)C.T. McGinnis
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •https://cepr.net/aging-populations-and-great-power-politics-the-problem-is-for-the-elites-not-the-masses/
Aging Populations and Great Power Politics: The Problem is for the Elites, not the Masses - Center for Economic and Policy Research
Dean Baker (Center for Economic and Policy Research)stoicmike
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •Jayarava
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in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •Bad reasons for lower rates: Those things being so darned hard to achieve that people who want kids need to delay for years as pregnancy becomes riskier and more difficult.
Most of the women I know had their first child in their mid-30s. I'm 34 and only now ready to try. Nominally we "chose" to wait, but practically it just takes that long to establish a career, pay off loans, and obtain a home.
Erno Hannink Decide for Impact
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in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •- Tracy Stone-Manning, Director, U.S. Bureau of Land Management
René M. Grabow
in reply to Sheril Kirshenbaum • • •Would you be afraid of election results?